Iraq: A Small Ray of Hope Despite Heightened Sectarian Tensions

By end-April the long-awaited appointment of seven Iraqi political leaders, including Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, broke the deadlock caused by the dispute over the selection of the prime minister. However, a new battle is expected over the selection of ministers to key positions, and the new leadership is facing a daunting task.

* Restoring national unity is still a distant goal. Although the main parties are represented in the new leadership, former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's secular party is still on the sideline. As far as national reconciliation is concerned, Maliki's credibility hinges partly on his ability to insist on nonsectarian ministers for sensitive portfolios such as interior or defense.
* Restoring security will be Maliki's first priority. The prime minister-designate has pledged to rein in militias. He will be judged by his capability to transform words into deeds.
* The nomination of the oil minister will be another important signpost. Should the Fadhila (Virtue) party, a junior member of the Shi'a United Iraqi Alliance, succeed in keeping its grip on the ministry, any hope for a quick recovery of the oil industry would be once more hampered. Conversely, the appointment of a technocrat would be seen as a positive step.
* Reaching a consensus over the Constitution is both a political and an oil issue. Unless the Constitution is ultimately revised to strengthen the role of the central government compared with the provinces and regions, the Sunni community will continue to feel marginalized, and uncertainty will prevail in the oil sector over the decision-making process. As a result, the recovery of the Iraqi oil industry would be further delayed.

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