CERA GLOBAL LNG GROWTH OUTLOOKS

In this Special Report CERA has updated its long-term scenario outlooks for international liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade. Key conclusions include

- The high growth rates for LNG foreseen in the 2004 report Forty in Eight have moved from a hypothesis to a predetermined element--huge investments in LNG are under way and irreversible. LNG trade could triple by 2020.
- The LNG investment build on the supply-side--where most of the capital is spent--is justified by global needs. Indeed, the key constraint point will remain supply.
- In the Atlantic Basin supply, not demand, will determine the speed and extent of LNG growth. In the Pacific Basin there is a potential supply overhang post-2010, but the potential sources of supply are concentrated and uncertain.
- As LNG is set to grow in importance in both North America and Europe, the pressures for Atlantic Basin price convergence will grow rapidly with the United States increasingly taking on the role of global gas "central bank."

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