Iran's Nuclear Ambitions: Where Do They Lead?
Uncertainty about Iran's intentions for its nuclear program and impatience with its tactics have led the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Russia to offer Iran a choice between suspending uranium enrichment, under International Atomic Energy Agency verification, during negotiation of effective international oversight of its nuclear programs to confirm their peaceful purpose, while benefiting from a range of incentives, or facing a menu of escalating international economic and political pressures.
* The offer of negotiations seeks to avoid the risks of having to choose between accepting a nuclear weapons-capable Iran or applying preemptive military force at a level likely to result in oil supply uncertainty and severe tension in the Middle East, but the determination of the five parties to obtain a prompt response from Iran is likely to be tested by Iran's efforts at continued delay and division.
* The outcome of internal policy uncertainties within the two key actors-Iran and the United States-may well determine how this potential confrontation is resolved.
* Meanwhile, these concerns will continue to contribute to oil market volatility and reticence among potential investors in Iran's hydrocarbon sector.
