Long-term Outlook for Russian Oil Production to 2030
Since mid-1999, average daily Russian crude oil output has grown by over 58 percent, or about 3.5 million barrels per day (mbd), lifting Russian production back onto a par with that of Saudi Arabia and propelling Russia into the forefront as a global oil supplier. Coming after a precipitous decline during the early 1990s that almost halved national output, the growth is very largely due to better and more intensive development of the Soviet-era legacy, chiefly in West Siberia (Russia's most important oil-producing region). This Decision Brief presents an updated outlook for Russian oil production to 2030.
* Key uncertainties in the production outlook are largely ""above ground"" and include changes in the Russian tax regime for new oilfield developments, the future existence of Yukos and its role in pioneering new approaches to oilfield practices, and the constraints of Russian export infrastructure.
* The Russian production profile to 2020 will be largely supported by fields currently in production (FIP) and fields currently under development or under appraisal (FUD/FUA), with the contribution from future discoveries becoming significant only after 2020.
* Russian oil production and liquids capacity could expand to 642.2 million metric tons (mt) per year (11.32 mbd) by 2030, underpinned largely by FIP, with an increasing contribution from FUD/FUA. New exploration will contribute only after 2010, but is expected to add 61.2 mt (1.22 mbd) to annual output by 2020 and 108.3 mt (2.17 mbd) by 2030.
