A Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline: Is the Time Finally Right?
The gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine has renewed interest in a trans-Caspian pipeline that would bring Turkmen or Kazakh gas into Azerbaijan and onto Turkey. With the spotlight on European energy security, Caspian producers and European consumers have voiced support for the project, which was discussed throughout the 1990s. This CERA Insight concludes that, as previously, there are several potential challenges to the realization of the project:
* lack of strong commercial support
* uncertainty regarding throughput from Turkmen and Kazakh suppliers
* Caspian demarcation disputes, particularly in the south
* competition from alternative sources of gas, notably Azerbaijan
* reluctance on the part of Caspian gas producers to disrupt relations with Russia
