Yemen: Saleh's Reelection--A Short-term Guarantee for a Brittle Country
Under Ali Abdallah Saleh's apparently easy reelection, the initial cracks appeared in the president's grip on the country. First, the main opposition candidate, Faisal bin Shamlan, made real inroads, in spite of a strongly tilted electoral framework. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the corner stone of Yemen's stability might be threatened. For some time, the balance has been secured through an informal understanding between the two potential rivals, Saleh and the Islah party's chairman, Sheikh Abdullah al-Ahmar. Islah's decision to back Shamlan in the presidential election and the uncertainty over al-Ahmar's succession raise questions about Saleh's ability to maintain this implicit power sharing with the main opposition party.
* Recent terrorist attacks have put Yemen back on the list of highly vulnerable countries. The latest events might have been overemphasized by the presidential candidate to boost his image during the electoral campaign, but the threat is serious and of great concern, not only to the Yemeni government and to its immediate neighbor, Saudi Arabia, but also to the international community given Yemen's strategic location.
* Current high oil prices make up in revenues for the decline in oil production in the very short term, but upcoming liquefied natural gas exports will not be enough to meet the demands of a booming population. Unless quickly addressed, Yemen's demographic structure presents a serious threat to the stability of the country in the longer run. Saleh has yet to prove his ability to implement the much-needed macroeconomic reforms and improve governance.
