Brazil's Presidential Election: Pragmatism on the Eve of Energy Supply Challenges
On October 1, 2006, Brazil will elect its next president for a four-year term. The race has narrowed to two candidates: the current president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, representing the Partido dos Trabalhadores (Labor Party), and the governor of São Paulo state, Geraldo Alckmin of the Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (Brazilian Social Democratic Party). Despite a few corruption scandals, the campaign has been fairly uneventful and suggests economic and energy policy continuity under the next government. This pragmatism and sense of continuity also extends to expected energy sector policies under each of the candidates.
* The candidates' positions on energy policy do not differ significantly, although Alckmin would likely be slightly more favorable to private investment than Lula. Under either president the country is expected to consolidate the current hybrid structure embracing both state and market elements.
* Policies developed by the next government will shape Brazil's energy supply and demand balance in the medium term, post-2010, but will have limited impact on the next four-year mandate.
* Economic and market conditions, both domestically and internationally, will continue to strongly influence future energy policies.
