Mexico's Elections Officially Reach the Grand Finale: A Political Juggling Act
More than two months after Election Day, Mexico's Federal Electoral Tribunal declared Felipe Calderón Hinojosa the elected president. The decision officially ended the electoral process, as the verdict cannot be appealed. However, the Democratic Revolutionary Party (Partido de la Revolución Democrática [PRD]) and its candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador are calling for outright rejection of the election's result and the establishment of a "parallel government" designed to reform Mexico's institutions. Although these actions might be interpreted as a formal call for rebellion, they have not been accompanied by widespread calls for insurgency so far.
* CERA does not expect legislative paralysis given the strong likelihood that the National Action Party (Partido Acción Nacional [PAN]) will create a working majority in Congress. However, some of the PAN platform's important proposals could be sidetracked. The Calderón administration's success in setting a path forward relies on assembling a workable coalition to secure public support and to develop an inclusive agenda early on.
* Priorities in the short term will likely focus on the approval of the federal budget, poverty abatement programs, and reforms to deal with Mexico's civil insecurity and the design of a new electoral legal framework.
* A major energy sector overhaul will likely be postponed to pursue less controversial issues-strengthening existing institutions and providing flexibility for involving the private sector within the current legal framework.
* Within a larger historical perspective, this election was intended to consolidate the transition Mexico has been making over the past two administrations to a competitive, transparent system, with widespread legitimacy. The closeness of the outcome and its rejection by the defeated candidate have compromised that objective. This result creates critical parameters that will define the choices of the Calderón presidency.
