Is it a Gas? Conflicting Interpretations of New Russian Export Law Signal Clash of Powerful Commercial and Political Interests
The Russian Law on Gas Exports enacted on August 1 was intended to solidify and extend Russia's "unified export channel" under Gazprom's control, but has instead led to unprecedented confusion in Russian hydrocarbon export policy in recent weeks, as key oil and gas industry players and Russian authorities have found themselves at loggerheads over interpretation of the provisions of the new legislation. The outcome of this debate has far-reaching implications for the long-term direction of Russian export policy, the overall balance of power within the Russian energy industry, and even perhaps the fate of the energy companies'; competing governmental patrons in the looming national elections for the political succession.
CERA's analysis of recent events leads to the following key conclusions:
* The immediate catalyst for the new gas law appears to have been a joint effort by the Kremlin and Gazprom to reinforce Russia's single natural gas export corridor in the face of intensifying international pressure to liberalize access rules.
* liquefied petroleum gas.
* The oil companies and independents have demonstrated their ability to defend vital interests, and in the longer term the new legislation may actually open the door to new legal challenges to the ban on independent natural gas exports.
