ENERGY TECHNOLOGY: EXPECT SURPRISES
Although they are all long shots, potentially revolutionary energy sources and consuming technologies are being developed by private enterprises and government laboratories, and the probability of a breakthrough is small but very real. Nevertheless, even a dramatic technological breakthrough is not likely to revolutionize the energy industry overnight. Changes will happen slowly, and for energy industry participants the risk of acting too soon is at least as great as the risk of being too late.
- Most long-term energy forecasts share the basic assumption that the technologies known today will primarily be the technologies used tomorrow. Rarely do they allow for major technological shifts.
- The possibility of a major technological surprise in the energy industry is real in our lifetimes, but even revolutionary technologies will be slow to enter the market.
- It is important to maintain a watch for new developments and avoid the pitfall of ignoring technologies approaching commercial viability because they have been uneconomic or immature in the past.
