IRAQ'S FINAL ELECTION RESULTS CONFIRM THE ETHNIC AND SECTARIAN DIVIDE
The Iraqi elections have only sharpened the issues facing the nascent government. After a long wait, the Iraqi electoral commission confirmed on January 20 the results of the December 15 elections for the new Council of Representatives. Thanks to the proportional system, the outcome of this Iraqi election looks more like the publication of a census than like the result of a political process. The commission validated the victory of the Shi'a United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), which gathered 46.5 percent of the votes and has the single largest block in the new parliament.
- Iraq in search of a coalition. In spite of the Shi'a UIA's clear victory, Iraq will have to learn the art of coalitions, as most important decisions by the newly elected assembly will require a two-thirds majority. The learning curve might be difficult, but it is the beginning of a true political process.
- A setback for a secular vision of Iraq. Former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi failed to convince Iraqis to endorse an encompassing alliance of moderate and secular-minded Sunnis and Shi'as, and outgoing Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Chalabi lost any chance to become prime minister by suffering a spectacular defeat.
- No major revision of the Constitution to be expected. Both Kurds and a large fraction of the UIA are likely to block any attempt to strengthen the role of the state in the oil sector, thus delaying the recovery of the Iraqi oil industry.
- A bleak short-term outlook for the Iraqi oil industry. Security issues are keeping production low. However, the appointment of a new oil minister could make a difference in the longer term.
